Major Acid's E-Rag
It Strikes Me...
That Paul Martin and Mikhail Gorbachev Have Something in Common
Paul Martin and the Gorbachev Effect
Drawing historical parallels is something of a fool�s game, which explains why I am about to do just that. The parallel is not perfect. Perhaps this should rule out parallel as the word of choice, but then social science is not really science, either, so parallel is like hand grenades and horseshoes � close enough.
The parallel is this: Paul Martin appears in danger of going the way of Mikhail Gorbachev, going that is, into the dustbin of history.
If you remember Gorbachev, you probably remember a man with an odd birthmark dominating his balding head, a hazy memory of the last leader of the Soviet Union, that Bogeyman that American Republicans, after their fashion of re-imagining history to make it convenient, claim Ronald Reagan put the political cowboy boots to.
In the Republican fantasy world, Reagan won the Cold war, but he didn�t. Gorbachev walked away from the Cold War of his own accord.
In the western media driven imagination, the end of the Cold War came with the fall of the Berlin Wall. But the wall didn�t fall because Reagan showed the commies his strength by beating up a small contingent of Cubans in Grenada, thereby flaunting the monetary black hole of his endless military spending; nor did it fall because, in an open-mike blunder, Reagan betrayed his willingness to nuke the Russians thereby scaring them witless. The Berlin Wall fell because the dispirited East German political machine realized its own lassitude, called on Russia for troops to quell the growing internal demand for Western-style freedoms � and Gorbachev said no.
That one decision � that single moment when Gorbachev, head of the second most powerful political/military complex on earth, said no � that moment is the single most important political decision in recent history. It was a supreme act of political courage, something that Reagan, in his wildest fantasies, could never conceive.
As hard as it may be to conceive, Gorbachev was probably a democrat. Under his watch, elections in Russia actually came to matter, and he put himself out there as a candidate.
Russians, shocked at their sudden demotion from superpower bear to pathetic circus performing bear, voted for the warm and fuzzy and drunken cartoon bear, Boris Yeltsin. Frankly, a duck with a speech impediment could have beaten Gorbachev.
Gorbachev grew up in and prospered under the Communist party system. He was the ultimate pragmatist. He knew � like Paul Martin knows � that it is possible to change the system from within, but only if one can gain control of the system.
Think of Gorbachev as the consummate company man, zealous in his job, working his way through the perilous world of Russian politics, gingerly walking the same corridors of power that the KGB stalked. If he were going to change the system, he would have to be in control of the system. When his turn at power came, he did change things. He made his decision in East Germany, and two years later the world saw the end of the Soviet Union. When frantic, old-line communists reacted by trying forcibly to oust Yeltsin, Gorbachev saved Yeltsin. In doing so, he sealed his own political fate.
Think of Paul Martin as the Canadian Gorbachev bent on changing the system from within, able to do so only after he gained control. Yes, Martin operates on a smaller scale; Canada is not, despite our collective belief, a world power. No decision Martin can make will reshape the world in the way that Gorbachev did. Yet Martin made significant changes to politics as usual in Canada.
Like Gorbachev, Martin worked his way up through the political system, the loyal company man, the ultimate pragmatist who supported his party and his boss, ultimately succeeding even in the most difficult job in Canadian politics.
Canada doesn�t have a KGB (no, CSIS will never be that competent) but Canada does have the Finance portfolio. Increase taxes; cut programs; set spending priorities that inevitably leave someone�s sacred cow off the list. Suffer the wrath of the public. Michael Wilson, who apparently harboured leadership dreams in the wake of Mulroney�s tenure, failed to survive that wrath. When Mulroney left, Wilson�s career was finished.
Paul Martin, however, transcended, surviving even the cheery Liberal lies about canceling the GST that were partly responsible for Chretien�s continuing election success. As Chretien and Copps tap-danced around the lies, unable even to muster the tiniest hint of remorse, Martin got on with business.
There�s no world re-shaping decision for Martin to face like Gorbachev�s East Germany choice, but Martin did make a clear choice in a politically murderous situation (in a politely Canadian metaphorical way) � the Sponsorship Scandal.
Martin could have buried the scandal, even by so simple a measure as calling an election early. An early call would have ended the Public Accounts Committee�s work before the members� butts were settled in the chairs, and that was certainly what Liberal old-timers wanted. That was politics the old way, pure expediency driving the agenda. Don�t doubt for a moment that Martin knew how volatile the Auditor General�s revelations could be as played out before a committee that included members of the loyal opposition; yet, in a fit of unprecedented political honesty, he let the scandal play.
That was not politics as usual. Politics as usual is McGuinty knowing that he would face a major financial problem when elected (told so by his own people) then continuing blithely to make promises he knew he couldn�t keep, promptly breaking those promises shortly after winning his election. It is banking on voter amnesia to forget his lies by the next election.
Politics as usual is Harper securing his win for the new Reform/Conservative party by making a deal with one of his opponents, then promptly breaking his word. It is pretending that extreme (or perhaps just provocative?) comments made by his own party members don�t really count and shouldn�t be believed and no one should worry about them.
Politics as usual is the NDP leader making ridiculous statements in an election knowing that he will never have to live up to any promises he makes himself because he will never win the election. (Although, to be fair, Layton�s homeless comments were stunningly over the top, even for the NDP.) It is backpedaling madly after realizing that he may be the junior partner in a de facto coalition with a man he effectively accused of murder.
Martin could have played politics as usual, but he didn�t. He let the political wall fall, and in this he signaled the potential beginning of a new era in Canadian politics, one in which politicians actually do stand to account for what happens on their watch. How different is this new world? Can you imagine any other scenario in which former Progressive Conservative leader Joe Clark would be campaigning for a Liberal?
Now, like Gorbachev watching his newly created world pass him over, Martin in his new Canadian world faces the spectre of a political thrashing. Now, like the old guard communists in Russia frantic at seeing their grip on power slip away, the back room Liberals see their own one-party state disappearing, too. There may be nothing they can do.
No parallel is perfect, as I said, and this one breaks down. In Russia, Gorbachev�s changes seemed suddenly fragile as the world watched tanks rolling up to a building threatening Boris Yeltsin until Gorbachev stepped forward to stay the communist hand.
There won�t be Canadian tanks, led by Jean Chretien, surrounding Harper�s campaign headquarters, and Chretien won�t be demanding that control be given back to Canada�s natural governing party. It�s not that I can�t see Chretien doing that; it�s just that I�m not sure he could find enough working tanks to surround the building.
